Today, most clinical trials are optimized on a phase-by-phase basis. For example, one may optimize a phase three trial based on statistical power, minimal sample size needed to detect a clinically meaningful effect, or the estimated probability of clinical trial success.
Our software optimizes the clinical trial program based on expected future cash flows throughout the life-span of the drug or treatment in question. In that sense, we view a clinical trial as an investment that should be optimized based on a risk/reward tradeoff. IDεA Invest can also be used to evaluate the financial value of one or several medical projects.
Software
Maximize expected profit
minimize risk
It works like this. We first map out the future scenarios for the drug and if it is developed, based on the following factors:
Factor 1 - Patents: How long do your patents last?
Factor 2 - Competition: What is the indication you are aiming at treating? How large is the market? Are there drugs on the market today? Are there other companies developing treatments for the same indication?
Factor 3 - Health economy: If you develop the drug, how much might it sell for? Given a specific effect and side-effect profile, what is a conceivable price of the drug?
Once the future scenarios are mapped out, we compile development costs and indication and drug specific clinical data. These are used to simulate the clinical trials in their entirety, including clinical trial dropout, disease progression modelling, treatment effect modelling, statistical testing and clinical trial cost.